Bitcoin Boom Bust: Crypto Market Cycle

Welcome to the windy world of The Paradise Paradox I continue here in Melbourne weather remains unpredictable – oppressive heat one day, chilling to the bone cold the next, and always windy up in your face Remember every day above ground is a good day and then keep on rolling with the positive vibes

Today my friend Khari asked me why is the crypto market crashing like this and I said short answer: nobody really knows Long answer there's a crypto market cycle, and nobody really knows So nobody really knows exactly what causes the dominoes to start to fall, but we know more or less than that it's coming when it does Of course this isn't a perfect system but this is what I've plotted out thinking about the patterns that I've seen in the market History doesn't actually repeat – it rhymes, so every time this situation comes up they're actually going to be slightly different, every time something comes up it's gonna be something new

Every moment is a new moment so enjoy it as it comes up The first stage – it depends where you start – the first stage is the boring phase, boring stage and this normally lasts about three to nine months and there's basically nothing going on during this time that you can see if you're an outsider So it looks very boring What's really happening is the developers are sitting at home in the dark basements, plunking away on the keyboards try to invent the future in Python, and some savvy investors are putting their money in, some intelligent people slowly squirrelling away their money and doing some research – but on the surface it looks like nothing is happening at all The media ignores the cryptocurrency space during this time

Generally the only time they get involved is if they can get some kind of hot angle like maybe they they hear about some new technology and they spruik it and say this is the future, or they get involved saying this guy is Satoshi Nakamoto and they have a witch hunt and they ruin some innocent man's life over it So that's the kind of thing that media can get involved in during that time but generally because there's no huge price swings, the price is kind of going sideways they ignore it, and that's that's a good thing, it's also a bad thing Second phase: the organic growth stage So this point is not just in the savvy investors or the people have seen a few cycles it's actually regular people as well – techies and hobbyists, enthusiasts, they start to get involved and they say hey wait on a second this technology is really interesting and this is the kind of people that you probably expected in 1985 would own an Apple II, like people who are enthusiastic and nerdy That's where a lot of the growth has come from historically

In the future we're seeing that change of course every time the cycle comes around we see more and more regular people, "normies" to use a disgusting phrase So the price slowly builds during that time but it's not like sexy price movements that the media can exploit it's like slow like a glacier coming 5% every couple of months then we have the third stage which is no longer that organic growth stage it's a hype grwoth stage So something happens like people start trickling in maybe a whale emerges from the ocean and lets out a sonorous roar from its blowhole and starts making a lot of noise pushing the markets through the water from its blowhole, and that's when the media catches on they say hi what's this "you know the prices move 10% 20% in a week, there's an angle here, there's a story here, we can pump people let's get people excited, get some clickbait motherfuckers" so that's exactly what they do, they start getting people hyped up, more regular people who don't really know much about it They start getting a little case of that disease called FOMO – fear of missing out and they start jumping in left and right

First it's just a trickle, eventually it's a flood and then you have this vicious cycle or a feedback loop between the media and this new money, this green money, emotional money if you will So the media hypes it up more, people get involved the price moves further, then the media keeps hyping it up and that keeps going around this time you start to hear this bubble talk So of course some people accuse it of being bubble but that's not exactly what I'm talking about What I mean is when people start saying stuff like "this is a new paradigm", or they say stuff like "the dollar is crashing against Bitcoin, it's not Bitcoin going up in dollar value it's the dollar crashing against Bitcoin" and all kinds of things to let you know that this market is getting a little bit overheated So they start to say things like this, this market is gonna go up forever or something like that

We start to hear this glib logic I've been guilty of this as well basically if an argument can be summed up in one premise and one conclusion it's probably not a good idea to base your investment or speculation on that Around 2013 I was looking at Bitcoin and Litecoin and I said wow look at this – Litecoin has four times the supply of Bitcoin – that means that its price should be 1/4 of Bitcoin No it doesn't mean that That was completely false – well not completely, and that's the danger

People say stuff like "oh well a Bitcoin has a limited supply that means it can only go up in the long term" no no no no! It doesn't there's two sides to that equation: supply and demand, so you have to calculate both, project both if you want to know what's really going on or they just say, I have these like straight up predictions – no technical analysis, no fundamentals They just tell you "listen ether is gonna be at 4500 on the 17th of March 2019" No argument behind it just a straight prediction just in like a big ol crystal ball dumped on your gonads – probably not a reliable source of information A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, that's why you want study hard put your head down, dig deep into the books learn about the technology and that way you won't have to be succumbing yourself to one premise one conclusion weak-ass arguments, glib logic – that's not for you my friend For you, a detailed nuanced understanding

Then we have number four, the dead stage You might call it the crash phase what happens here? Maybe a whale gets out of line he decides to take too much profits at one time and then suddenly people look at each other, you see the eyes go back and forth and nobody knows who's gonna hit the "sell" button first, but somebody does and eventually the prices is falling like 10 percent in a day, twenty percent ina day Suddenly it's like a stack of dominoes is just falling on down All of that emotional money that gone in based on emotions You get in based on the fear of missing out

You're probably gonna leave based on the fear of loss, and that's predictably what happens I was thinking earlier this is important, this is important enough that when my future children grow and they start asking me questions about money I'm definitely gonna take the time to teach them about this kind of mass psychology because this is really important this is this is the kind of thing that separates the the weak investors from the from the strong ones In the long term, you don't want to build your house on sand, you want to build your house on the rocks You don't want to build your investment decisions based on whims, based on emotions in the moment and hype One way to do it is base it on your idea of what a better future might look like

Pput your money in alignment with your idea your vision of what the future is going to look like, in a better world that way when people start to sell, you'll feel your heart and won't be moved Your emotions might be moved on the surface but you won't be moved at your base because you're standing on solid ground, and when others stumble you will stand tall, and you'll probably even have the presence of mind to buy when the market is crashing Right now we're going into tough times We're going probably going from that dead stage, into the boring stage I call it the dead stage because that's when the media is likely to declare Bitcoin and crypto "dead" Now a lot of you are probably feeling a little uncomfortable about this because you're saying oh maybe maybe you bought into Bitcoin at ten thousand twelve thousand or bought into Dash at a thousand or something like this, and you're not sure of the future, and maybe you're worried about the money you have on the line

At this time I give you this little piece of advice: one thing you can do which is very good for managing your emotions do something for others and maybe it's even something for a stranger, maybe you'll buy a stranger a meal and when you see the gratitude in their eyes you're gonna know that things aren't so bad, that you do have the power to make a better world in that moment and that's why a lot of us gone into this crypto stuff That's why we're into crypto because we imagined a better world Every day we have the opportunity to make the world a little better and when you affirm your own power your own abundance, that's a beautiful thing Finally during these three to nine months of the boring phase, it's a great opportunity to accumulate As I've said before, and I will repeat again: don't follow the media, follow what's in your heart, know what you want, be clear be precise be decisive

When someone asks you why are you buying this coin? You want to be able to give them a five minute presentation of why in Solomon's name you expect it to increase in value over the future ,or why you expect it to offer value to the world that you're living in As I said before these phases aren't exact – history rhymes but it doesn't repeat So you're going to have to stay savvy if you want to apply these patterns that I mentioned You're gonna have to see how they change suddenly over time Know the limits of your own knowledge

A wise man once said, to know the limits of your own knowledge is the beginning of wisdom You're gonna see a lot of people out there who are making these bold declarations and they seem very certain telling you that X coin is gonna be Y price on Z date That's not necessarily true and you don't really want to follow those people, or be one of those people You want to be a little more uncertain because that's what wise people are, because wise people know that the world can always surprise them Someone once said that the problem with this world is that fools are so certain and the wise are so full of doubts

Actually I don't think that is a problem with the world at all – I think that's great because it demonstrates and there's still a little bit of chaos in this world and that means there's still mystery and that means there's still potential So delight in the mystery, gaze into the wonder, and you'll find your reward so I'll leave you with this this blessing: May you always be uncertain, and decisive Thank you so much for listening, thank you for paying attention to The Paradise Paradox Remember you can go on Steemit wwwsteemit

com/@paradise-paradox and wwwsteemitcom/@churdtzu where you can follow me wwwsteemitcom/@paradise-paradox www

steemitcom/@churdtzu Also wwwtheparadiseparadoxcom You can follow us on YouTube as well and on Facebook on iTunes, on your favorite podcasting app The reason I mentioned Steemit particularly is because it can be a really cool way for you to make money

So if you don't have a lot of money to invest in crypto, it can be cool to go on Steemit, make an account and start posting videos or memes on Dmanialol and songs, more or less anything that you can fit in a digital form, you can post on there and monetise it I introduced a buddy of mine to it the other day and he's already on their own earning a few dollars which can be great In these uncertain times some people are doing it tough, and this is a great way to get them introduced into the new economy Besides that, Steemit is just really cool because basically you hardly ever see a negative comment or a troll comment, you know how YouTube can be the cesspool of humanity – for some reason people feel like showing the worst side of themselves there On Steemit, people know that when they comment it affects their reputation and they can earn money from their comments, so go on Steemit, have a look and I think you'll be delighted by the level of positivity, respect and support that you receive on there

Love is all over the place on Steemit so have a look Thank you so much for listening, have a great day, signing off, saludos desde Melbourne

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